Modeling the Future & the Future of (Model) Railroading?

kristof65 Nov 9, 2007

  1. kristof65

    kristof65 TrainBoard Member

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    Hi all...

    For the last 20-25 years, I've kind of skirted the edges of the hobby, dabbling here and there. My "layout" consisted of a 4x8 sheet with two loops of HO track running around a christmas tree stand, and a lot of partially finished scenery. For the last ten years or so, the layout has languished in a basement storage room, while I dreamed of replacing it with some N-Track modules.

    Anyway, my recent discovery of the T-Trak module standard, and the cleaning out of the storage room have finally inspired me to get serious about making the switch to N-Scale. Last week, all my HO stuff went up on ebay, and construction of a couple T-Trak modules is currently underway after a not so cheap trip to Caboose Hobbies. Anyway, this process has both inspired me and led to a lot of random thoughts and questions, so bear with me here - this will be kind of rambling.

    I've never been interested in "historical" modeling, which is one of the reasons my HO layout languished - it started out with the idea of being a 60s/70s ski town with passenger rail service. The more I worked on it, the more I realized I preferred more modern buildings, trains, vehicles and such. I've noticed, though, that the hobby really leans towards the more historical, and this is even more evident in N than HO due to the fewer number of products and manufacturers in N-Scale. I realize that a large part of this is that modern times are probably beyond the eras that are truly the golden age of railroading, but it's a bit disheartening. I have to wonder if this is part of the reason that model railroading has a hard time recruiting and keeping younger enthusiasts. With everything being so high tech these days - even the electronics within our little locomotives, it seems somewhat backwards that model railroading seems so focused on the past. So I'm gonig a different direction with this layout.

    Thanks to my strong interest in sci-fi, I've decided that with this layout and it's series of modules, I'm going to try my hand at some near future and futuristic looking modules. In other words, modeling the future of railroading.

    This, of course, presents it's own challenges. Like I'll have to scratchbuild quite a bit - particularly anything that is supposedly from the future and extrapolate what the future will look like in my projected timeline, which will be around 2030 or so.

    That second part is actually turning out to be the hardest for me, at least where railroads are concerned. In order to extrapolate the future, I need to be able to establish today's baseline and the expected technologies of tomorrow. For example, I beleive the majority of my rolling stock will be intermodal in nature, because it seems that's where the fuure of heavy freight is headed.

    Where I'm having the most problems with this is in identifying locomotives, particularly freight. I can't seem to find any information on any frieght locomotives built after about 1987 or so. I also haven't been able to find any information on expected future technologies for locomotives. Actually, that's not entirely accurate. I'm finding a lot of information on locomotives and railroading, but narrowing down the specifics I'm looking for is proving elusive.

    So what I'm looking for are some good resources on what the various locomotive manufacturers are shipping today, and what they're expected to ship in the years to come. I can't even figure out who the currently active manufacturers are.

    So any thoughts on the future of railroading, or even model railroading, or any resources you can recommend, I'd really appreciate.
     
  2. Rossford Yard

    Rossford Yard TrainBoard Member

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    I think you are the first one I have heard thinking of taking on a challenge like that. It requires some out of box thinking but I think you will have the most unique layout ever. And at least for a while, you should keep the rivet counters at bay!

    As to loco info, I Brian Solomon has done books on GE, EMD and there is even on on GE EVolution Locos only - the newest generation by Sean Graham-White. That would be a good place to start.
     
  3. Grey One

    Grey One TrainBoard Supporter

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    Um, I'm a bit confused by "I brian solomon". Did you mean "I _suggest" Brian..."?

    Edit:
    I can’t say I have approached my layout with the same intent but I have created what I considered a “sci fi” locomotive and train.
    My “Thrommer”
    [​IMG]
    Thread:
    http://www.trainboard.com/grapevine/showthread.php?t=93353
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 9, 2007
  4. Bernard

    Bernard TrainBoard Member

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    Welcome to trainboard and I can't wait to see what you come up with as a layout, this sounds interesting and imaginative.
    I'm a Bullet train fan and the trains almost look like jet planes or rockets, very futuristic this might be something you might consider. If you can find any websites on Japanese RR modeling you will see some modern layouts. Good luck.
     
  5. Doug A.

    Doug A. TrainBoard Supporter

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    Jeff, I'm kinda surprised you'd say that given our discussions on modelling the (future or fantasy?) Trans-Texas Corridor!

    Kristof, I had a similar thought (although not really so sci-fi, just kinda a short jaunt into the future) of modeling the "Trans-Texas Corridor". The idea is a high speed passenger line with adjacent 4 track freight line running the length of the state from around D/FW to Mexico. My thought was that since the catenary for the passenger rail would be in place anyway, I surmised that the 'Corridor would use electric locomotives to haul freight as well and that the participating railroads would split the operating costs or rent them or whatever. So I was thinking that the Acela locomotives would be used (geared for freight, of course) for the freight lines (coal, intermodal, grain, manifest) while the Acela trainsets would run alongside hauling passengers. To me, those Acela designs probably look more "realistic futuristic" than anything else we have in North America, and Bachmann has the models. (which are supposedly decent, from what I've heard...and they're DCC equipped)

    The model railroad would be set maybe 10-15 years in the future. Six tracks, all catenary, all concrete ties & turnouts, no grade crossings. No "yards" per se, only Interchange drop-off sidings whereby the railroads would pick up their trains using diesels for the trip to their yard or final destination. There would be passenger yards at the major terminals though. It would be enough to make even the most hard-core N-trakker drool!!! Actually, the corridor itself would probably be relatively--I hate to use boring, but how about--sterile. But I was thinking of modeling a few of the partner roads' (UP, BNSF, KCS) interchange yards and a power plant or two to add interest.

    So, just figured I'd share my ideas, I'll be interested to see what you come up with!
     
  6. Tony Burzio

    Tony Burzio TrainBoard Supporter

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    I've alway thought of doing a railroad set in the future. A hodgepodge of museum refurb steamers bringing food to a pitiful few remnants of society. When the train arrives, fueled from boards broken from the rotting remains of houses, a station wagon pulled by a team of a horse and twelve people stand ready to take the precious grains up to the fortress. A dozen men stand ready with pikes and swords to beat off the Raveners, half starved bands of brigands that swarm the countryside...

    Brrrr.... :we2-jimlad:

    Anyways, there are plenty of Model Railroaders in the sweet spot of 25-45 years old. They are mostly N Scalers, don't subscribe to magazines, and don't talk to the old people, so they aren't counted. Why do I think this? Well, every day there is a new announcement for something or other, and it all seems to sell out. Where is the stuff going?
     
  7. kristof65

    kristof65 TrainBoard Member

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    That's kind of the appeal to me - I've made it a point to check out a lot of layouts/modules over the years, and I think I've seen maybe one or two N-Trak modules that have a futuristic theme. But they're relatively simple - there's one here in this region that has a small scene that is inspired by Star Trek IV with a Klingon Bird of Prey. Another I recall seeing is a 50s era UFO landing/first contact.

    Thanks - last night, shortly after posting, I finally found information on the GE Evolution series. That led to other discoveries as well. Part of the "problem" for me seems to be the fact that over the last 30+ years, the look of frieght locomotives hasn't changed much - it's all apparently just minor details on the outside. Once I was able to identify a few more recent locomotives, I then ran into the fact that very few of them seem to be available in N scale - at least not in the Walther's catalog.

    Cool - I'm not going quite so "high tech" with mine - I'm probably going to assume the tech is mainly Hydrogen Fuel Cell powered locomotives, which probably won't change their looks too much.

    Thanks - I admit, it's the Japanese bullet trains that inspired the idea originally. Shortly after my dad and I first laid our track for our old HO layout, I saw my first model of the Japanese bullet Trains, and I wanted one for the layout ever since. But he and I had already agreed on modeling the 70s.

    Sounds similar in concept, although I'm headed a bit more into the future as far as equipment is concerned, but since I'm using Kato Unitrack, I'm probably going to model a corridor that has existing track. I'm thinking of the area currently between Colorado Springs and Denver or Colo Springs and Pueblo - even though it's empty now, there will definitely be something there by 2030. And it has rail lines in the area, and a few small scattered settlements/buildings so I can insert the occasional historical model.

    As I mentioned before, I'm going to make the extrapolation that most locomotives will be using Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology. The thinking is that a powerful enough HFC engine would allow the use of high speed passenger locomotives like the TGV or Acela without the overhead catenary. So for my passenger trains at least, I'm looking at the Acela, a TGV or a Japanese bullet train, which I'll convert to remove the caternary equipment and replace with cooling units for the HFCs.

    Freight locomotives, I'm not so sure about - would they go streamlined, too, or just be variations of what we're using today? All most all of my freight stock will be intermodal, so I'm not sure streamlining makes sense. At this point, I think I'll pick up some late model locomotives, and just add futuristic looking details, and venting and such based on what I've found about HFC technology busses.

    On one of the modules, I'm going to have the intermodal station connecting with a spaceport inspired by the one Virgin and the XPrize winners are building in New Mexico. Most of the space port will probably just be painted onto the backdrop so I can concentrate on the frieght yard itself.

    I'm having fun extropolating some future trends in business, too. Virgin seems to be expanding into everything - Airlines, Spaceports, phones, etc, so my roadname will probably be a "subsidary" of Virgin, at least on the passenger side. Google and Microsoft are other companies that are looking to expand into other areas as well, so I'll probably use them in various places around the layout as well. I'm seriously considering my frieght road name to be Google - I just giggle everytime I think about a white locomotive with the Google logo down the side.

    I'll also be putting a military base on one module as well. There are several miniature gaming companies that happen to make sci-fi military miniatures in N-Scale, and I've got a few picked out to represent futuristic tanks and gun ships.

    Automobiles are going to be my biggest headache on the layout, I think. There are few late model cars I'll be able to pick up and weather to look the 20-30 year old beaters they'll have become, but the rest will have to be scratchbuilt.

    ooh, I never considered a post-apocolyptic layout. If you wind up doing that layout, do a search for 10mm fantasy figures - you'll get all the men with pikes and swords you can use, plus you can find all sorts of orcs, goblins and other monsters to use as mutants.

    The Great Train Expo is in town here (Denver) tomorrow, and I'm headed off to there to bulk up on my scratchbuilding supplies so I can hit the ground running on my first two modules.
     
  8. SteveM76

    SteveM76 TrainBoard Member

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    With the life span of locomotives those brand new GEVO's and SD70ACe's will still be around and kickin' in 2030. Honestly I don't think we'll see much change by then aside from more environmentally friendly newer locos. Automobiles, on the other hand, might be a different story.
     
  9. kristof65

    kristof65 TrainBoard Member

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    SteveM - true enough. But while they'll be kicking around, they'll be old, at least as far as my layout is concerned. And while I'm sure my view of the future is probably optomistic, the further forward I go, the more I have to scratchbuild. It's actually the lack of a large variety of modern buildings, rolling stock and other scenery items that's holding me back. I want things recognizable, but still futuristic looking without being forced.

    Most of my futurism will be in the details. I'll have a few high tech looking buildings, and futuristic looking cars, but the biggest things will be in things like my choice of road names, signs and pricings, preponderance of satellite dishes, etc.

    The one major extrapolation I'm making is that breakthroughs in Fuel Cell technology plus the dwindling supplies of oil will cause a shift in transport technology. The layout will reflect the time period of that shift. There will still be gas stations (albeit with signs saying gasoline is something like $15.99/gal), but I'll have hydrogen refueling stations as well.
     
  10. Doug A.

    Doug A. TrainBoard Supporter

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    We might be crying for $15.99/gal by then...

    So, like two weeks into the future? :tb-shocked:
     
  11. kristof65

    kristof65 TrainBoard Member

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    LOL! Well, I was thinking that gas would start dropping again in price after it wasn't so widely used. But yeah, that's about right.
     
  12. SteveM76

    SteveM76 TrainBoard Member

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    LOL!!! Gas was $3.19 a gallon here the other day:tb-hissyfit:
     
  13. Triplex

    Triplex TrainBoard Member

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    There are no N scale plastic models that I know of of post-2004 power (SD70M-2/ACe, ES-series, Green Goats and genset switchers).
     
  14. Grey One

    Grey One TrainBoard Supporter

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    Keep in mind that in 20 years the appearance will change. You could take any stock loco and mod it as much as you want. Redesign the radiators, panels, grills and stacks. Who would have thunk that Tunnel motors would exist iin the diesel age? Maybe someone will find a way to make oil burning steam efficient or how about a device that would "pour" the juice from dynamic brakes back into the overhead cattenary?
     
  15. J Long

    J Long E-Mail Bounces

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    I think the future holds high speed elevated track systems. They are beginning to spring up in certain parts of the country in heavily populated high tech areas. These trains are likely to be electric charged by nuke plants which the nation is leaning heavily to for future affordable and plentiful energy.

    As far as historical trains go, the manufacturers make what train enthusiasts want. The late steam/early diesel era is very popular because the trains of that era made quite an impression on us when we were young. The trains are now scrapped and we long to see them again.
     
  16. jagged ben

    jagged ben TrainBoard Member

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    The future...nice to see people discussing it. I hope Tony isn't right, but he probably is...;-).

    Hopefully our government will get serious about high-speed passenger rail before there's no money left.

    Electrification will become more common as the price of oil continues to increase, and railroads seek flexibility in where they get their energy from. Catenary allows the actual source of energy to be just about anything.

    Actually, railroads will probably start booming again, more track will be laid again into places that it was once torn up from, more trains will run...all as the trucking industry loses ground because of fuel prices.

    $15.99 a gallon is probably about right for 20 years in the future.
    Hydrogen Fuel cells will never be commonplace. They don't increase energy efficiency.

    Grey One, pouring the juice back into the catenary has been possible for a long time. On some other thread somewhere, someone said that the Milwaukee Road used to time movements so that trains going downhill would simultaneously help to power trains going uphill.
     
  17. prbharris

    prbharris TrainBoard Supporter

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    True of the US - but with increasing globalisation, oil price pressures and carbon emission control will there be faster and sleeker looking trains with more passenger mileage - especially for journeys under 500 miles. Have a look at http://www.katomodels.com/product/nmi/e3_komachi_e.shtml
    http://www.trixtrains.com/new07/2007newitems.html

    Freight could get bigger and heavier - what about a 65' container, with double stack articulated units, running on upgraded lines?

    As Doug said
    just like the new Eurotunnel route - not even ballast on some of the line - sparkling clean - for now! Tracks for the TGV and ICE run alongside the freeways in Europe, following the highway gradients and curves - good for over 200mph.

    Peter
     
  18. Westfalen

    Westfalen TrainBoard Member

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    You're right, it's called regenerative brakes, it's been around almost since the beginings of electric traction and most modern electric locos and MU's have it. All the talk these days of being carbon neutral and reducing greenhouse emissions, railways have been doing it for years!

    On the subject of what the trains will look like, I think EMD's Aerotrain from the 1950's looked more futuristic that anything made today. Someone from that era thinking of modelling 2007 probably wouldn't have even thought of SD70ace's or the like, in Trains magazines from the mid fifties they were speculating about atomic powered locos or much of the US network being electrified. US freight locos seem to be getting less streamlined and more angular looking in appearance, on the other hand passenger power is getting the streamlined look again after locos like the F40 and SDP40F.

    One thing to keep in mind is a rule any freelance modeller should abide by. It's your railroad and you can do whatever you want, but it has to seem plausable.
     
  19. Grey One

    Grey One TrainBoard Supporter

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    These "Meat Balls" blow past my window at about 80mph:
    [​IMG]
    My 6 unit town house shakes from the dispaced air.
    Since Roberta thinks they are "cute"and "adorable" and no one makes a US version I'll be getting a similar European version when budget permits.
     
  20. kristof65

    kristof65 TrainBoard Member

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    I think this will become more common too as right of way issues become more complex.
    While I agree with this assessment, I also think that part of this is marketing of the hobby - both by hobbyists themselves AND the companies selling to them. It's not necessarily intentional, but it's there. It's also sort of a chicken and egg thing - companies see no market for things like concept locomotives and futuristic looking stuff, but the market isn't there because there is no product for people to buy.

    Concept cars are always a hot seller among Hot Wheels/Matchbox collectors, I'm pretty sure that if some great looking futuristic stuff came along in MRR, we could attract a different type of enthusiast, which would benefit the hobby overall. Of course, someone has to be willing to take the risk and offer the products - and then stick around long enough for it to catch on.

    At the Great Train Expo here in Denver over the weekend, I noticed something - out of all the layouts there, the most "modern" layouts were the N-Trak setups. There was a nice long intermodal HO train running, but when looking at the individual layouts and modules, N-Scale represented far more modern railroading than any of the other scales did. Yet we're very much underserved in modern products, at least compared to HO.

    That applies to far more than just trains though. Heck, even our cars are going retro. One has to admit that cars, trains and even buildings from the 50's and 60s had more style and class than the stuff that came out in the 70s and 80s. Until the recent trends from the automobile designers - A lot of the cars today are finally recapturing the element of style that cars once had - some by going retro - IE, the Mustang and PT Cruiser, others just by being different, like the RX8 and the Honda Ridgeline

    That's been half the fun of working on this project - deciding what is and isn't plausible, where the trends will go. The nice thing is that I can speculate on technology - IE, HFCs, but unless there's something specifically unique to the external appearance of them (which there isn't), I can always change my mind later and say "Oh that locomotive is powered by distilled daisies" if I want to.

    Catenary is appealing for that reason - Electricity is electricity, regardless of whether it's generated from hydroelectric or nuclear - but the thought of modelling the caternary lines doesn't appeal to me.

    Other things, I have to be more certain on, or at least more plausible in my decisions and justifications, because it will be a lot of work to change them - like Choosing Virgin and possibly Google for my Road names.

    I've already worked out a way to add a placard to each of my modules, where I can write up the scene. That's one thing I was disappointed with in the many N-Trak modules at the show over the weekend - you could clearly see that each module builder had a personal concept in mind, but you couldn't always grasp what it was while looking at their module. While I hope I won't have to use the placard to explain my concepts, I'm hoping that having them will allow the viewer a better grasp of what I was thinking at the time I built it.
     

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