When Did The Collector Market Collapse? How does it begin??? Ok so we can all figure the reason for lionel trains collectability came into it's own more with tin plate pre WW2 due to scarcity over time and lack of number of units produced and ones that were damaged during play time or melted down for the war effort.That market wasn't persay minipulated it seemed to happen with a natural progression? The Hunt brothers tried to create a market with silver years ago by buying and cornering the silver market? yea,yea we all know the saying supply and demand but some seem to happen in a natural progression and others seem more created or planned?? Look the media can make someone look like a saint or sinner,a politician a golden boy,or turn a nobody like "The Situation" into a somebody!!.But in all reality is still a nobody? Just wondering why we let ourselves be led like sheep into any collector craze? And why a certain brand is the cats meow to collect and other brands are not so?
Why does anyone collect anything? (Taking into account "collecting" vs "speculating.") Because they want it, they find the items attactive, it allows them to be part of a group or it reminds them of fond experiences. I saw a tee shirt for sale at the GSMTS yesterday that said, "Model Railroads - You can still have a happy childhood." Regaining something we got rid of or buying something we weren't able to have when we were kids also a strong motivator for some. As to certain brands, quality or reletive scarcity do have an impact as does having a chartable history. (Example: Backstamped railroad china or knowing the month and year of release for MT cars.) The media can help start a usually short lived frenzy or craze (beanie babies). Also, speculators see that some money is being made and start buying up everything they can get their hands on. Everyone likes to make a buck when they can which is why I think we'll continue to bounce from craze to craze. Lets examine these situations using myself as an example. I bought the MT circus cars because they remind me of a trip my family took to the Circus Museum in Baraboo WI when I was 3. That was the same trip where I saw my first steam locomotive at North Freedom and is probably where I became hooked on railroading. Will I run them? Probably, but they are mine so I have as much right to keeping them in the box and displaying them if I want. In another case, I quadrulpled my money in a week on an MT car (I'll admit I was very suprised on that one) but that was an auction derived price. I also started in N less than 10 years ago so I like to pick up pieces I like or for my road that came out before I was in the hobby. Trying to find and acquire those lumps me in with others in the post market. The bottom line is this is a hobby, hobbies are suppose to be fun, and only you can define what's fun for you. V/r, Andy Tetsu Uma
What if?? So lets say what if a peson say in Texas back in the early eighties advertised wanting in an ntrak newsletter offering to buy Kadee west indies cars,sort of an on going want add,car was plain jane sold for under $3.00,could that start a high price at auctions if cars were bought up? Just a what if?
The West Indies reefer? Let me see if I understand the scenario. Someone in the '80s bought a lot of one type of car. You are asking that if now, that someone made one available, could it have a high auction price? The answer for the scenario I just described is "Yes, it could but is not guaranteed." There are a lot of dynamics that come into play with any auction. Is there someone in the audience (or better two or more people in the audience) looking for that particular item? Bidding war drives a price up. Next, how often does this item come up for sale? If nobody has seen one in 15 years, that could affect the price. Have they been run? That matters to some people and not others. I'll buy a 1974 MT runner for cheap because I want to run it. Others won't touch it. Sometimes people just don't know the market and overpay the going market price. (This is true of retail or autions.) These are just the major reasons that immediately come to mind. Now, if others with that car start to see the high price and decide to put theirs on the market, I think you would find the final sale prices coming down as the people who REALLY wanted them started to get them and leave the market. Auctions do strange things to people. At a furniture store going out of business auction, I have witnessed people pay more for an item than it was priced during the pre-auction clearance sale. Who's to say what can happen?
High price for that 1st run was reached already,In this market today at this moment it would not happen,if you got $100.00 today it would still be a good return on something that cost less than $3.00 but I believe that market for that peticular car was created by an outside source and worked. High price went for just over $601.00
Some of those prices are crazy high in my estimation but it's not my money. It's possible that someone tried to corner the market. Like eBay or hate it, it has made for greater market transparency. My advice to speculators in any business is that any investment comes with at least some amount of risk and that risk means you can lose money on investments, too.
I believe that the West India car being referenced here isn't the Micro-Trains refrigerator car with a WIF paint scheme, which was catalog 49510 released in September 1999. I think the reference is to the Kadee West India Fruit boxcar, catalog 20370 released in April 1983 with road number 301. This car was reprinted in September 2004 with road number 314. I bring this up in case someone confuses the two cars and thinks that there is a potential bonanza with the refrigerator car, which, I think it's safe to say, there is not. It's my understanding that the least common releases of Kadee cars were the ones produced in the early 1980's. Kadee was actually considering exiting the N Scale freight car business at the time, and I'm told that production runs were smaller. What we do not know is exactly what "smaller" means, as of course few if any people know what quantities of cars were actually produced. It's my belief that as paint schemes are made available again, either as Micro-Trains' own reprints or on other manufacturers' cars, the overall aftermarket value goes down and the number of people interested in having that one specific item also declines. The hypothetical situation of someone buying up many copies of one car in order to attempt to corner the market on it? I suppose it's possible, and there was a rumor a number of years ago that this actually happened with a later production Micro-Trains car, but I don't put a high probability on this.
I collect cars I expect to need to make up specific passenger trains. I collect Official Guides and Official Railway Equipment Registers for the time period I model. (I've got enough, thank you.) I collect "historically significant artifacts" when they concern my areas of research. And sometimes give them away to libraries, museums and archives. I do NOT collect things made to be "collectibles." But if you want to, go ahead.
In general "we" don't let ourselves be "led like sheep". Are you referring to the limited runs which encourage people to order now or lose out? Limited runs are just good business. It protects the company from ending up with stock on its shelves. We are all responsible for our actions. There is no need to be caught up in the "order now" preasure. If it was worth having it will be available again. MT makes several different "fantasy" lines that have a strong appeal to people. For some reason the desire to have one each of the state cars, president cars, warship cars, etc is very very strong in some of us. MT knows how to push those buttons and I wish them the very best. I was once sucked into wanting them - all of them. Then I did the math and reminded myself "they are just pieces of plastic". I would not be surprised if using risk analysis you would find that buying lottery tickets when the pot was over 80 million was a better investment. In any case, people want things and sometimes think that other people will want them even more. Sometimes they are right. Sometimes, not so much.
I'm no expert on this subject, but this is my personal experience. Around 1984, I was on a mailing list of a dealer from Texas, he put out a monthly flyer from which you could order recently produced items, and he also had a "wanted" section in this newsletter where people could post items they were looking for, and when the item became available, you naturally were able to buy it. Well, this sounds simple enough, and I'm sure worked well at first, until several people wanted the same item as everyone else, the two items that come to mind are "The Chessie Steam Special" produced by Con Cor, and a Southern Pacific Overnight boxcar six pack produced by Kadee. So eventually, this dealer decided he would hold an auction for these items as they became available, which seems reasonable, considering the circumstances. Well, one thing led to another, and the next thing you know, all those early Kadee releases are selling for outrageous prices, and numerous people decide they're going to buy one of everything Kadee produces etc. This whole system worked fine until Ebay came along and we all found out these items weren't as rare or scarce as we were led to believe. Now, I don't know if there were other dealers offering auctions at the same time, or who decided to do it first, and I'm not accusing anyone of doing anything dishonest, this is just the way things proceeded, and eventually the truth was known.
I collect C&O N scale stuff. Just a hobby for me. I want to have one of every C&O N scale item made. Amaqzing how much stuff there is and continues to be. This isnt a money thing as well as a thing I enjoy. I suppose someday if I'm living in a cardboard box under a bridge I would sell the stuff, but until then I will continue to collect and run my C&O stuff.
The collector's market is a wild beast at best and highly unpredictable and can be triggered by anything and demand can die just as quickly as the market moves on. A lot of folk confuses a "craze" or "fad" as a collector's market.Nope. These come and go quickly-remember the CB craze of the 70s when every other car you passed had duel Hustler CB antennas?? How about the beanie babies? As far as one brand above the other..Some speaks for its self such as Tyco and Model Power train sets.Others simply by the word of mouth such as Kato over all brands. The why we are lead to the various fads and crazes is simple---its fun. Even I had a 40 channel Midland CB radio with co faced Hustler antennas.
Not losing out is how the Hiawatha set is being percieved, it is going to be hard to get if not preordered ? fatalxsunrider43
A Biblical perspective on collecting I think this was writen long ago to those holding on to their expensively purchased N scale collections Lamentations 4 VS. 1. How the gold has lost its luster! Even the finest gold has become dull. The sacred gemstones lie scattered in the streets! And to the Sootsman Guide Lamentations 4 VS. 8.But now their faces are blacker than soot. No one recognizes them in the streets. Their skin sticks to their bones; it is as dry and hard as wood.
Naaa, I disagree. If it sells well then they will re-release it. Folks like me might have to wait a few years but it will be released again.
The problem of collecting anything is the hype, oversupply and high cost. Benie Babies are all made from the same thing. They decreased rapidly in value when the hype for them died down My three sons collected over 30,000 in baseball cards in the 90’s and due to oversupply they are worthless. We got rid of most them last year at a fraction of what we paid for them. In collecting HO size plastic soldiers there is a growing price bubble with over half of the sets sold were created in the last few years. Too many sets at too high of prices for limited demand. The stamps I collected in the 50’ are worthless When I began collecting HO and N in the 70’s I usually purchased things in double digits numbers My first N rolling stock purchase was 100 Atlas at .50 each As prices went up I realized I would not be able to buy everything made Instead I set modest goals of long range(lifetime ) purchase of 12 railroads rolling stock etc spread throughout the country. Will all this be worth anything when I die? Probably not since it will be sold at the same garage sale the wife will get rid of the benie babies, the remaining baseball cards , toy soldiers and stamps The value of the train collection to me is not how much it is worth but the priceless entertainment it has provided me over the years.
I am not a collector, but there is a little part of me that once in a while comes through, which tells my conscience, "Buy it and keep it new, it might be worth something some day" of which the final outcome seems to always elude me. I end up either selling it for just a little, or like it so much I run it, and to heck with the collector. Second, I consider perceived value an illusion, as over the years I have seen people over-value routine stuff, even in recent years with my kids' Beanie Babies and Poke-E-Mon cards, and even most recently with my son's sports cards. There are the success stories compared to my "failures". My mother was a nanny to a young family in the most exclusive part of Boca Raton, with a multi-million dollar home, expensive cars, trips all over, etc and the incredible wealth was the guy made his money off collecting/selling baseball cards then manufacturing baseball cards for minor leagues. Unfortunately the husband lost it all by remanufacturing and trying to sell his own cards from previous years at their old value, sort of counterfeiting but it was not legal, but it resulted in all of his cards being rendered valueless. Story one, example to be learned from by FloridaBoy. Story two. Way back in '88, I was still a newbie and the LHS sponsored a monthly sidewalk swap meet in the breezeway outside his store. It was a great venue, and very popular. So, one day, I decide to sell off some old HO stuff, and set up a table. The LHS owner, my friend, entrusted me with some N stock to sell for him. Along comes this guy who shows me the ConCor Military (Hospital) Set, with a Rivarossi Pacific and some converted rolling stock into Military colors and lettering. It was in the red sponge padding with the artificial walnut collector box. I look at it, and value it at hmmmmm, $20 for the loco, and $5 for each car, but didn't have the $40 on me at the time, so I told him maybe later. He makes the rounds, and I watch him sell it to a knowledgeable guy at another table for $200, he sells it to another for $350, and I am watching this go on. The owner comes out, sees the set and offers and pays $600 and puts it on display in his store for $800, and it was gone the next Saturday I went in to the store. I wonder where that is today? A lousy loco and reworked cars in a collector box which was perceived rare and people were literally fighting over it. Looking back, I am glad that I don't collect anymore except for sentimental or historical reasons, not for resale. I made good money on my old model car kits until eBay and re-issues literally made my valuable stuff worthless. What sets the collector market in motion? To me it is total perception and hearsay with no direct correlation to quality, value, or worth. It is borne by perceived rarity, perceived demand, and could be snuffed out an any moment by any one of many dynamics. Not for me. Ken "FloridaBoy" Willaman
An oral fixation? If you look at what collectors often fall for -- like MTL's Hershey, Pepsi, and Popsicle cars -- it seems that quite a few collectors respond to rolling stock that feature American corporate trademarks, especially those connected with, ah, orality (things that can be placed in one's mouth). I don't understand it -- perhaps Dr. Freud can help us -- but maybe part of the idea here is that this makes the collection valuable to a very different bunch of collectors. There ARE people out there, or so I am told, who have huge brand name collections (e.g., anything and everything that has Pepsi on it). Nobody knows anything about those old trains, of course, but everyone knows what a Popsicle is and how it tastes. There's an eBay auction in progress that includes a huge number of candy bar trademarks, as the following examples suggest. Halloween all over again. Yuck -- I'm still sick from eating too many Butterfingers that the kids didn't take. --Bryan9
Looks like we found a unique way to skirt around the issue....once again. As far as billboard train cars or those navy, president or other "So Called Collector's" series of cars. You won't find me collecting them. Hear me out as I tackle this subject. Here's what I submitted earlier in a previous posting and I believe it still applies. Start Quote: We are all collectors in the sense that we collect the trains and equipment we want. Regarding a "Collectors Market". N scale has not produced anything worthy of being considered a "Collector's Item". Most of the early stuff, that might qualify due to age, is considered to be... junk at best and belongs in the trash can. There are modelers like our own George, MTNTrainman who takes the older train cars and re-works them to operate on his layout. I admire and respect that. With regard to the alleged collectors market, collectors items they aren't. The "Toy Train Market of Yesterday". Something happened in that Marx, Lionel, American Flyer did see some of their stuff hit the antique vintage toy train market. Without thinking, Lionel came along and reproduced some of their early tin plates and the market for the older and rare items considered to be collectors items, dropped out. Why buy the used stuff when you can buy brand new tin plates that operate better and look brand new. MT and ConCor did put out some "Collectors Sets"...at least it said so on the box. It's not what's on the box that counts, it's the rarity of the item. Just because it says so on the box does not a collector's item make it. It's no guarantee. At the last swap meet I went to, a fellow model rail was selling off his Quote "Collectors Sets" Unquote for less then the MSRP. These aren't true collectors sets, as there are to many of them, still out there. A serious look at the so called "Colletor's items". There is no way that any items produced in N Scale to date, will ever qualify as a collectors item. There is an organization of toy train enthusiast who have organized or banded together to promote the idea of turning specific items into Quote "Collectors Items" Unguote. Cash cows...comes to mind. They've created a false economy, that has no back bone. This idea of a collectors market in N scale products... is pure BALDERDASH. End Quote. There just hasn't been enough time or the type of quality required to make a so-called collectors piece. I had hoped Micro-Train products might qualify. At a recent swap meet a club was getting rid of boxes of Micro-Trains freight cars. Top Price for these prized "Collectors Pieces"....you won't believe it...$4.00 each. It's a phony economy with no back bone, I said earlier. Let's not get e-bayitis = E-Bay-Itis. A brain inflammation that only takes an aspirin to cure.eek: Collectibles? Everything is collectible... at what price do you want to pay? .
