Thanks for the update on the IMRC 8000 gallon tank cars. I have several on 'pre'-order and was wondering if they might be on the chopping block (cancelled). Those are some of the few items I've continued to pre-order because they tend to sell out fast. Intermountain used to make their own products in-house. I remember threads where discussions about the process for gears being made required close observation of temperature/humidity because the gears (for the FT's) were made slightly larger and had to shrink down to the correct size afterward. I don't know when IMRC changed-over to completely having models made overseas. There was no issue in getting parts nor such long delays for products to be released... but that was pre-2005... which is when I think the business plan changed. I still wonder how Micro-Trains can continue to produce models here in the USA... despite the overseas competition... but I happily continue to support Micro-trains for their effort.
Pre-ordering doesn't bother me. A lot of B&M stuff only seems to be available in short runs so pre-ordering is the best way to get my name on one. Try tracking down a set of IM B&M F7s, they come and go but I would sign up for a pre-order in a heart beat even on the chance of getting a pair of AB sets. The same goes for the Roundhouse/Athearn B&M 60ft passenger cars, again I would gladly pre-order a set if I thought there was some chance of landing one at anywhere near retail. I do appreciate the frustration of signing on for something which will never happen and not be told for a year or more that the order will never be filled. It's a shame that we are in this situation but I think the economics of the hobby industry will mean more, not less. Several manufacturers flooded the market with product in roadnames which just didn't sell enough to justify the numbers (in software this is called "Shovelware". My personal feeling is that model railroading is a slowly dying hobby and the costs of bringing a new product to market, for an increasingly demanding consumer, can be quite prohibitive. It was different years ago when you could make a generic GP7 and slap a ton of roadnames on it (including non prototypical ones) and sell it for years without modification. Modelers these days, even entry level ones, are looking at so called "Phases", minor detailing differences, timeframe specific paint scheme variations, those are all variables which have to be taken into account by a manufacturer. It sucks but its reality. Now then, I am also not fully taking the manufacturer's side. They seem to have become quite risk adverse, except Bachmann who can apparently afford to make mistakes even if they haven't made a major one in the last few years. Bachmann seems to have perfected the generic GP7, RS3, etc., with multiple roadnames approach and done so with fairly high quality products. Their market isn't likely to be primarily the high end modeler but rather the beginners and mid-range hobbyist with a high end person here or there looking for something only Bachmann produces. Other manufacturers like IM and Atlas have to deal with the myriad of detail differences and the demands of prototype accurate products... it's a lot to gamble on if the market fails to materialize... however, a large part of succeeding at business is taking risks and that is something which is absent in N scale these days. That's my two cents.
This bring me back to the idea of 3D printing. If manufacturers started concentrating on making the MECHANISMS and either added 3D printing or coordinated with those who provide 3D printing, we might be able to get RELIABLE production of the things we really want. At this point, 3D printing is still in its infancy - one material at a time in only one color. But, 3D printing will probably improve to the point that multiple colors can be used, at which point shells for those mechanisms could be produced that are effectively already painted. And, at some point, 3D printers will be able to use multiple materials, potentially making some of the mechanisms as well. I am just hoping that the hobby lasts long enough to see the benefits of 3D printer evolution.
Actually it's no problem staying viable as China begins to hug Capitalism and crappy manufacturing practices. OEM's are through the roof now and the flexibility we had to exploit a cheap labor force is no longer the business norm. We are seeing tooling quotes from China that are not far off what we can do them for. Moving to countries like Vietnam or some other 3rd world garden spot is not as easy as folks might think....infrastructure and all that. During the recession our number stayed somewhat stable when compared to the drubbing others took being cut off from MFG sources off shore especially when Sanda Kan imploded and Kader/Bachmann tossed everyone out of the few open plants still available. Joe MTL
Interesting read...I forwarded it to Marketing for consideration. Much more level discussion here than on most forums out there on this subject. As a MFG pre-orders are very attractive, but they need to be handled differently by both the Manufacturer and the customer. We generally pre-order out no more than 4 months out and do deliver on or very near the promised release, at least within 2 weeks. Others commit to a quarter 6 months to a year out because they have to schedule with off shore mfg. The customer needs to understand that a request for pre order is not a promise to deliver. The idea is to gauge the market and demand and if it is cost prohibitive then it has to be shelved. Again, MTL is in a better seat to respond to low quantity orders because we make it here and can combine tooling to meet any demand. Frankly I see a shift industry wide to pre order for good or bad and it will be interesting to see how it flushes out. Joe MTL
Joe.... Let me ask. If a manufacturer puts out 'feelers' in the form of preoders and there is no real committment on the customers part other then saying 'YES'...what does that really prove ? A 1000 people say yes and when the product comes out only 400 actually by one. Wouldnt taking the risk and banking on your reputation and belief in your own poduct and just making the product and announcing it work better in the long run ? JMO
George - in your scenario, a vendor could (should) know to offset the positive responses (in this case, 40% will buy). But, what if you float an idea that only garners 250 "Yes" votes. Well, with a 40% purchase rate, you know there really isn't much enthusiasm for the proposed model and it may not be worth the setup costs, etc.
Then again...just because only 250 people said yes...doesnt mean there arent 1000 people who just didnt reply to the preorder...but would still want the product. Most people dont like being put in a corner and have to decide and respond to any questions to get what they want...JMO Like what was said in "Field of Dreams"..."Build it...and they will come!"
This is a good point. Not everyone is 'in the loop', so to speak, but it seems as though there is that assumption. They are not all on the 'Net daily or quite frequently. They don't all buy magazines, etc. It's like riding amid a herd of cattle, where you might toss the lasso as large as possible, but you will only catch a small portion of the total possible.
That is true, but that goes into the science of polling. How does one ensure a proper sample size. Some polls work, others don't. There are classic blunders everywhere (Truman / Dewey). But one can't accept the data from N polls and then assume N+1 has an invalid sample size, if the first N were all done in the same manner, and returned a reasonable result (within margin of error). There has to be some data, somewhere, that a manufacturer has to trust that says "if I make this, there will be interest". Whether a new N scale loco, or the latest Elmo toy for Christmas. Except for a purely custom shop, no one makes something without some gauge of interest. (Note - I am not saying pre-commit; just interest in the item)
From my experiences with polling, 'ensure' is not possible. It's just like some I've seen here on TrainBoard. Response a fraction of one percent. Interesting, perhaps, but otherwise just useless.
I could get into all kinds of statistical information about polling and sampling, but I think the trains would fall asleep.
The problem inherent with the accuracy of the pre-order method of polling of interest is the fear of commitment. Most of us don't pre-order with the intent of not fulfilling the implied obligation to buy when the product is ultimately released. Unfortunately many of us have experienced changes in fortune or plain misfortune over the past 10 years. We pre-order with our good faith... and credit card numbers... to our local hobby shops or e-tailers. We hope that the funds are are in fact available when these products are scheduled for release... but things don't always work out. In order to avoid looking bad with our favorite hobby pushers... the commitment to pre-order may be waning. Sent from my SM-G530T using Tapatalk
It is interesting to know that IMRR has only recently been mfg'ing overseas. It can be hoped theat as costs in China go up, and frustrations on there part do, we will see them reopen the manufacturing here. As Joe implied, the control and availability make a huge difference!
Intermountain began selling rolling stock kits to compete with Micro-Trains in the early 1990's. Their kits were very detailed, having separate grab irons, ladders, their own trucks with knuckle couplers... etc. That level of detail created somewhat difficult to assemble models. The kits were made in Longmont CO and were available on a fairly regular basis. Many modelers requested that IMRC make ready-to-roll models even if the cost was a little higher. The labor involved to assemble the models would make them much more expensive than the ready-to-roll Micro-Trains. Somewhere in that process... IMRC decided to send the unassembled kits to China for assembly/decoration and they were able to get the price down somewhat that way. That process was apparently used with their FT locomotive releases (early releases). I not sure if they do ANY injection molding in Longmont anymore... most likely it has all been relegated to China. I doubt that they will be able to compete if they do return the tooling and assembly back to the USA. The cost of labor for those highly detailed models will be prohibitive at the expected costs of labor here versus China... or what ever other country is the lowest bidder. Many model railroaders are averse to the increasing prices of products and would likely make that move highly unprofitable for not just IMRC... but possibly other manufacturer/importers of model train products as well.
Exactly. That is why I said previously that the pre-order system is intrinsically flawed in that it fails to accomplish what it's goal is and that is to gauge market interest in a product. Because of human nature, as expressed in the above quote, it actually has a negative effect on the availability of product. Right now it appears that, with few exceptions, the manufacturers have determined that all the low hanging fruit has already been picked off of the N scale tree.
I'll honest here, our pre-orders have been better than expectation on the majority of products we offered...and generally orders continue to come in after the closing date. We produce additional units to cover that contingency and the orders that come in after the cars are released. The only exception has been a couple SW1500 releases and that was because the roads are not that popular to begin with and low sales were expected. I don't see us going to all pre-order anytime, the mix we have seems to work. As far as bring work back to the US, I think you fail to consider the overhead expense to have things done offshore. Without someone who is on site pretty much full time, the cost to manage a project is enormous. Deadlines slip for almost no reason at all, quality control is generally marginal at best, response time lags beyond any explanation, runs show up wrong despite pre-approvals of colors, details or assembly. I've found over the 30 plus years I've worked with off shore vendors, the amount of time you have someone on site is inversely proportional to the level of trouble you have getting things done. The other problem many companies have is getting tooling returned. Very difficult in China "you can have your products produced anywhere you want as long as it's in China" Assembly was also brought up. Yes, it can be expensive or cost prohibitive, but if you are clever and can design assembly fixtures, you can streamline the process as we have actively done over the years. Low hanging fruit seems to be going offshore and letting someone else figure stuff out...the tough job is doing it yourself and having to figure that stuff out yourself lol Joe MTL
I have addressed this before but it seems that the essential facts of the matter are lost in some people's opinion that asking for pre orders is some plot or ploy to somehow stick it to modellers... from the manufacturing point of view, here it is in a nut shell: 1. Tooling is expensive; N scale freight car @ 15K, N scale passenger car @ 20K, N scale Locomotive @ 50K.... those are real dollars spent before one dollar is earned. Youy can't throw that money around on a whim.... 2. The pool of widely used, popular locomotives and freight cars is shrinking - as the market matures there are less models that haven't been made. You are therefore having to offer a "better" model of a car or locomotive and the number of people that will buy that is usually less than if the model had never been done. 3. Manufacturers do not want small runs - there are minimums, not only to make the finished product but to obtain parts like boards and motors. If you can't order several thousand units, you will have a problem getting time at most factories or suppliers. 4. Retailer: There are fewer and fewer LHS's... the ones that are out there don't carry nearly as much inventory as they used to; inventory is cash in jail.... Internet stores usually don't carry inventory either.... 5. Modellers: 90% of all sales are within the first 60 days of a product hitting the market - why? Because the market has gotten used to a lot more product being available so it's the "next big thing" approach.... 6. Detail: Models have more and more detail; more roadnames, more features..... this means we run more sku's of smaller quantities, which raises costs as assembly factories have to deal with these smaller quantities. We give the modelling community months to consider if they want to buy our products, sometimes a year or more. we know the minimum quantity we need to go to production and meet our minimum financial target. We advertise, show samples, make videos, do shows, send samples to LHS's and try everything we can to show the product from conception to final pre production sample. we ask end use clients to tell their dealer they want one (each dealer handles pre orders in their own way; we don;t ask for or take a penny upfront) The dealers gather their pre orders, decided if they want shelf stock and enter orders..... We gather the orders, figure out how many we want to have for a small inventory of units for repair/replacement an then, finally, place the PO with the factory and suppliers and wait for delivery..... that's it.... It would be great to say "ah heck, make 5000 of them and see if they sell".... but we'd only do that once before we'd disappear, and so would a lot of others because we'd be out if business. Asking for pre orders allows us to deliver products to modellers, be profitable and continue to serve the market. It's not perfect, but it's the best way we and many others know how..... if you can't accept that then all we can say is sorry.... but those are the facts of this business right now for many suppliers.
I just bought an S2 from an etailer...I didnt have to preorder. I just bought 10 freight cars from another etailer...I didnt have to preorder. My layout is about complete and my roster is pretty well set...I never had to preorder. I can usually find what I want out there somewhere...and I dont have to preorder. If I miss something because a manufacturer didnt make enough...based on their preorder predictions...its a risk I am willing to take. I still wont preorder. Sorry but those are the facts from many a consumer. I think we are all at the proverbial "Mexican Standoff". Everyone looking to see who blinks first. Model railroading will continue...at least as long as I am still alive.
There are 100o's of freight cars that could be done, 100's of which that are at least as 'popular' or widely used as the Rapido's 36' reefer and many other models by other manufacturers. There may be a saturation point as to how many of these 2nd or 3rd tier cars N scale can handle at one time, but once Rapido runs it's course with the 36' reefer, there's 100's of other cars there could follow up with the same use or popularity criteria (if that really exists). Jason
