Well, that makes for an interesting twist to things. If the above photo dates are correct then FTA #1601 would have had to have been repainted twice before 9/21/49: First with a lightning on the side then back again to black. Who said history was dull???
Given your research and information, I doubt the Headlight photo date is correct. More likely sometime between your latest all Black photo date and your 9/21/49 Lightning Stripe photo. My guess is that 1601 met a minor bump in the road and had to have her side panels replaced. The Paint Shop, being more clever than the average ground hog, gave the replacement panels Lightning Stripes because they were aware she was going to be shopped and repainted in the near future. So they wanted to save some money for that shopping. OK, so that's a SWAG, but who's gonna challenge it....
So, more than likely, the '48 photo was probably taken sometime after 9/21/49 - i.e. assuming that photo date is actually correct.