Some observations from my experience: I never really had a running train layout as a kid, but was interested in them. My interest took off again only AFTER I had my own children to reinvigorate me and get me into a hobby shop. Since than I am again addicted, but this didn't occur until the ripe old age of 34. My observations are that its not as prevalent an activity in teens and 20's, there are many reasons for this, such as school life, work, and young activities. Also, it is less likely (generally speaking) for people at that age to have a house. Space is certainly at a premium. But as people settle down, as they have their own children and get more involved with their own "inner child" as a result, as they are more likely to have a home which allows them space, as they grow more home-bound rather than out and about socially, trains re-enter the picture. Add to this brew the fact that there are fewer basements being built in new homes, that the strength of the real estate markets in many locals has put space at a premium so that it is difficult to find space for a club, and there are bound to be changes from the way things once were. Its disheartening that the forthcoming recession is going to hurt this expensive hobby, don't you think? At each of 3 local train shops here in the south Florida area there is a steady stream of commerce, and much of it is to 30-something men; the FEC One-Trak group has many 30-something members. I don't think there is anything to fear: companies, by the looks of their steady stream of releases, seem to be doing well. My thought is that the teens and 20's are naturally a weaker area for the hobby, but that it picks up again as we age a bit. I think everything is gonna be good!
Nice analysis, jsoflo. Very pertinent and realistic. I was one of the lucky ones in 1973, landing a house at age 25 due to a big contract payment. It's hard to imagine today that $3500 could be the down payment on a $35,000 house in the suburbs of Boston that had about 1400 square feet. That was 35 years ago. Who's to know what the perspective will be in another 35 years?
Agreed. I note that some newer folks argue that the hobby is no more expensive today than relative to the ecconomics in the past. As someone who has been around in model railroading a long time, I can tell you it most assuredly is...and most of the change has occurred in just the last 15 years. I would say that it is at least twice as expensive to build and equip a layout today than at any time in the hobby's history and that figures significantly into teens taking up model railroading. JSOFLO's last sentence presents a particular concern to me. I fear that if the current recession truly turns out to be a deep one, you are likely to see a number of model railroad equipment companies, some that many hobbyists think are so large and stabile, pack up their tents and vannish into the night. A lot of the seemingly prolific manufacturers are really operating pretty much from run to run and at the high prices charged per unit today, only a slight down-turn in sales could result in them closing their doors. Costs and product availability are major factors in pursuing the hobby for teens, as well as the many seniors that make up a good part of model railroading today. NYW&B
The only reason it might cost more now is the layouts are built to a much higher standard than in the past. If you compare apples to apples it actually no more or maybe even cheaper to build the same layout today as in the past. The mass produced chinese models are cheaper per unit than the lower volume stuff of the past. Mantua, Varney, Lobaugh and Lionel were not cheap in the 50's. My first loco was a rubberband drive Athearn GP7 that cost $8, a nice gear drive GP7 nowdays costs maybe $80 but is twice the quality. Bread cost 25 cents then and bread cost$2.50 now so the models don't seem out of line. I'd much rather have today's selection and quality at today's prices than go back to open frame motors, brass rail and fiber tied flextrack....dave
Dave, I would have to contend that this would only be true today if one absolutely lowballs every item they purchase. Yes, there are "relatively cheap" locos and rolling stock out there but they are certainly not reflective of the current state-of-the-art, as were their equivalent from Athearn, Mantua and Varney say 50 years ago. Folks need to appreciate that today's supposedly improved quality is only a reflection of the advance of technology through the years. It's really no better than what was offered as state of the art in those 1950's items. If you look at the pricing of current middle of the road diesel road engines and if you are honest about it, you find that most run around $150-$200 list. For steam, add another $150 to that figure. Middle of the road rolling stock goes for $30-$35 a car nowadays. And you don't even want to look at lumber prices for benchwork, or sub roadbed, since Katrina. All these are much higher than in the past, relative to average personal income. Perhaps it's also worth addressing the claimed much broader selection of products today that one sees so often mentioned, as I have personally found it tends to be more myth than fact. In the past, just about any loco, piece of rollingstock, or structure kit I desired was either available that day from my LHS, or next week from Walthers and was likely to remain so for an extended period. Now, LHS have all but disappeared and because of manufacturer's extremely small production runs, if the item is more than 6-8 week past its date of initial issue, odds are it will be unobtainable without conducting a nation-wide search. Any longer than 6 months and you might as well forget about obtaining one, other than perhaps on the secondhand market. There have been many desirable locomotives offered in recent years that can not be found any longer. I know, because I've had it happen to me repeatedly of late. In short, if you are well heeled and can afford to buy everything you want at time of issue, it probably is a great time to be in the hobby. On the other hand, for both most younger guys, particularly teens and guys with families, or the many retired hobbyists of more average means, the outlook is far less bright or golden than in years gone by. NYW&B
I have some back issues of Model Railroader which date back to 1990, and I can tell you that most everything now has doubled in price. I don't have the exact ad in front of me, but an ad for Trainworld/Trainland in MR 1990 has Walthers Superliner Coaches for 11.99. They're almost 30 dollars now. They also have various engines at extremely low prices. The average being around 20-30 dollars. I also see about 10 as much train shows then as there are now where I live.
Another factor that I think makes a big difference in peoples' interest in a hobby is its trade publications. How do folks feel about the 'big ones' in model railroading - MR & RMC? Also, I think a hobby's support organizations can be a big factor in promoting the hobby. In your humble opinions, does the NMRA do a good job of this? What are peoples' opinions about the traveling "World's Greatest Hobby" show?
Don't forget, when talking about the expense of the hobby, that some of your price "increases" may be due to the dollar going in the toilet in value relative to most other currencies.
My short answer: From a market research perspective, I think it's really quite simple: Model railroading is pricey, requires a significant investment of time, and needs a large amount of space. People have the most free time when they are young. But they also have the least amount of free income and living space. Middle-aged people have more space and income is better, but still limited. But they have the least amount of free time per day. Older people (such as empty nesters) are making the most money they'll ever make, have the most available space, and have more free time. Therefore the older demographic best suits the hobby. This in no way, however, indicates that the hobby is in decline - just that you need to reach a certain point in your life when you can meet all three requirements. But the question everyone is really concerned with is: Is the hobby in decline? To examine that I'll give you: My long answer: Since I'm one of those "younger" Gen-Xers, here are what I see as problems from my new-to-the-hobby perspective. I'm not saying I have things completely correct. But this is how one newbie sees things: There's little incentive to get interested in trains: Many people have little or no exposure to real trains anymore. In fact,the only exposure many people have with trains any more occurs when they have to wait at a crossing for a train to pass. This is typically seen as an annoyance instead of a positive experience. Many people hear nothing but negative things about trains. Trains usually make the news only when they derail or hit something. Product availability is poor: Most people have little or no exposure to model railroad merchandise. Thomas the Tank Engine merchandise is widely available at toy stores, big box retailers, and even book stores. Model railroad supplies are only found in hobby shops. These are not available everywhere and not all carry reasonable selections of stock. With the exception of the train sets that perform so poorly they actively discourage newbies, model railroad stuff is difficult to find. Retailers of model railroad supplies are often not consumer-friendly either. As others have pointed out, hobby shops often tend to be staffed by people who are either unfriendly or uninterested. And most online retailers have sites that do not inspire confidence from either an appearance or security standpoint (often both). Plus, just try to find a return policy. Information is difficult to find: There is little basic information readily accessible to beginners. Bookstores don't stock books on it. They do stock model railroad magazines, but these publications are not for beginners. Libraries may have books, but they are seriously dated. It's also hard to hard to find introductory information on the Internet. I consider myself a computer/online power-user. But it took me several days of digging to find out what "DCC" was. Manufacturers are also limited in what they offer to beginners. There's usually little available on their websites and they do little to reach out to new consumers (ask anyone who's emailed Bachmann or posted in their forums). I tried to get into this hobby ten years ago and today I still marvel at the fact that Atlas sells their trackplans. If I'm going to buy $124 of Atlas track, should I really have to pay another $4 to get the book with the plan? Price is not just a concern, it's a barrier: Model railroading is not just expensive. It's expensive even compared to other hobbies. For around $30 you can buy an RC car or plane, a slot car set, a stunt kite, a model rocket set, or a model kit plus paint and brushes. Double the amount and you start entering the better quality arena. Triple it and you're entering the serious upscale merchandise field for these hobbies - or you could buy a crappy low-end train set with a basic loop of track. I'll now go one further and say model railroad merchandise is often overpriced for what it is. Case in point: I can buy a Happy Meal and get a simple electronic toy free. I can spend $5 and get a card from Hallmark that plays music. I can spend $10 and get a telephone. I can spend $25 and buy a DVD player or $40 for a wireless network router. But if I want a DCC soundboard and speaker for my loco, it'll cost more. When these are added to the aforementioned time, space and money, it's perfectly understandable to me why I'm the only Gen X (or Gen Y) I know dabbling in the hobby. So is the hobby in decline? I really haven't been around long enough to know. But it wouldn't surprise me if it was. Even if it was, that still wouldn't mean it had to stay that way. Here's what I'd do to: Revitalize the hobby: Now's a great time to reinvent the hobby: Railroads are making a comeback After many years, profits are now on the rise for railroads. This means people like Warren Buffet are interested, which means people who dabble in investments (like middle-aged folks) are interested. Railroads are green and younger demographics are very interested in eco-friendly alternatives. This is why there's now some positive advertising being done by railroads like Norfolk Southern. This would be an excellent time for model railroad manufacturers to pool together, just as dairy farmers did (Got milk?), to put together a cohesive advertising campaign promoting the coolness of trains and model railroading. With profits on the rise, this would also be the best time to approach railroads about co-op advertising to offset costs and extend advertising reach. Capitalize on GeoTrax and create low-cost product lines: Thomas the Tank Engine is hugely popular with families with children up to about 5 or 6. After that, the interest in, as Skipgear put it "trains with faces", really peters out. However, Fisher Price has stepped in with an alternative that appeals to children that are a bit older: GeoTrax. GeoTrax is popular and has now a large catalog of products available. With a 7 yr. old, we collect it in my home and my wife actually makes no pretenses about who it belongs to: her. Now toddlers and young children are covered. So no longer is there a hole in this area of the future market to be concerned about. With this out of the way, companies should focus on creating a low-cost alternative to draw young adults with lower-incomes in. Atlas is already moving in the right direction with its Trainman line. Others need to follow suit and add lower cost, decent running locomotives to the lineup. I know this is possible. I recently bought a couple of LifeLike GP-38-2 locomotives from Walthers for my son. They are lacking in detail, but still don't look too bad. They also weigh a ton and run very well. I paid $12.98 each for them. While I don't know if Walthers made any money on them, I'm sure they didn't price them to cost them money as they continue to sell them. And like most stuff, these locos were made in China for a reason. Now they are back to $51 and no one wants them. Why not price them at $19.95 and aim them at younger consumers. This kind of pricing would be easier to package to big-box retailers as well. Scenic companies and track manufacturers should also heed this call with some basic sets such as Woodland Scenicsoffers. Companies that don't compete, such as Atlas and Woodland Scenics could even produce complete train sets together. Inform: Telling people how to do it and making it easy for them to find this information is essential to growing the hobby. As part of a unified campaign, a website and basic collateral pieces for free distribution should be produced that explain the basics of model railroading. Track plans for various company's systems should be available free. The website should link to manufacturers and retailers. Part of the campaign's expense should also be devoted to advising retailers how to improve their online and brick-and-mortar images. Standardize: DCC is new and digital. New and digital are cool. But DCC is still in the phase that HDD and Blu-Ray just went through. Until things are standardized, casual consumers (such as me) are likely to opt out due to the confusion in the marketplace and unnecessary expense charged to consumers because of product differences. But the alternative, DC, is old, cumbersome and complicated which makes it off-putting as well. The NMRA made the standard, now they should step forward and finish standardizing it (i.e. require everyone to use the NMRA plug and adopt something like LocoNet). This would reduce confusion and cost as every company would be offering similarly functioning products. It would also encourage companies to focus on hobby-expanding accessories rather than mere core items to generate profits. Increase availability: With cohesive national advertising, more affordable products, and basic sets and expansion pack SKUs, model railroad manufacturers would have an unparalleled opportunity to convince big-box retailers to carry their basic packages. This should be done with care to prevent alienation of industry's core retailing market: hobby shops. Proper promotional support should entice consumers to visit hobby shops for the upscale and specialized products they've always sold best. An excellent example of how to do this can be found by looking at the bicycle industry and their success with both big-box retailers and small cycling shops.
A couple of comments I've seen have stimulated a few of my little grey cells: "The working world of today is based on total mobility, forcing people to veer away from hobbies requiring relatively permanent layouts." "What younger people see when they open a model railroading magazine is older people with huge, expensive layouts. These mega-layouts and their presentation do nothing encourage anyone to enter a hobby that appears complex, space-and-time consuming, and very expensive." One answer to these situations might be to join a modular model railroad club. If you build your module(s) to a "standard", e.g., Free-mo or NMRA, you can take your module wherever you go. Storage and moving should be much simpler and less expensive than a monster "permanent" basement layout. Low cost, high satisfaction. You can even build a "big" layout out of modules or "dominos" -- my current project occupies a 30' x 27' detached 2-car garage, and it's being built using hollow-core doors as quick & easy "modules". I'm working towards generic Free-mo specifications so I can take one or more modules to a meet, plus I can reconfigure the modules and use as many or as few as I want.
Just a little more first hand experience at the store today: Two more young modelers that I had not seen before visited the store today with their easter money. One walked out with a ready made tunnel, some inexpensive HO rolling stock and some building kits to the tune of about $60 while the other learned a little about scenery and bought a few of the Woodland Scenics starter kits (landscape and water) and some buildings. Both kids were some where in the range of 9-12 with their mom's and both were being encouraged. I have seen more and more parents encouraging the hobby as a way to teach how to save and work for a goal. Often the kids see's something else they want and the parent will comment, "You'll have to do some more chores around the house and come back for it later." They are out there, really they are.
Well my son is only 2 but you tell me if he looks excited when he got his first HO scale locomotive as a door prize a month ago. I cant imagine where he gets his imfatuation with trains.
At the show in Sinsheim I handed the throttle to the visitors, especially to children. They were the ones who run the engine slowly! Blog follow the link to: Sinsheim 2008 Wolfgang
I try and tell some of my clubmates that my 4 year old daughter does some of the best slow speed prototypical running of anyone. I think it's just a natural consequence of her being afraid to "fall off the track 'cause it's gonna be too fasssst" as she says and not some inherent knowledge of prototypical operations, but then again, maybe she's just born to be a conductor.
I was speaking of a possible future as an actual railroad conductor, someone responsible for the safe operation of a train and all that entails.
Yes, visibility is a problem. People don't see trains as much as they used to 50 years ago. It's hard to get interested in something, i.e., as a hobby, that you're not exposed to very much. And what we see very often are dirty, rusted, graffiti-covered freight cars. Hardly an inspiring sight. Yet here we have all these reports of children and adults being excited when they see a model train, e.g., at a show or the local hobby shop. Perhaps there's something primal in our "collective unconscious" that responds to these big, powerful machines, perhaps more so because they are under our strict control -- they have rails to travel on and they stay on them (for the most part).
I wonder if this is more of a problem of where one lives. I live in an area right near the nexus of most of the railroad activity between Oregon and Washington and it's hard to go through a day and NOT see or at least hear a train somewhere. If I got to work I can't help but go near or cross railroad tracks at some point. Indeed, I would have to go to great lengths to not see any trains anywhere. My kids see trains almost daily, and to them the trains are just as normal as the city buses, the mini-vans, the grocery store, the utility poles, and all the other things in their environment, except that it's only for trains that we will suddenly pull to the side of the road to watch.
