Where are the Great Young Model Railroaders?

These tons of great work in small places, however, don't constitute what it takes for those "Great' Landmark layouts" of yore that really Made past Model railroaders like McClellan or Koester or any of those other "Greats." Clubs and moduler layouts produce great groups, but again you don't end up with the Piqued Individuals like Wayne Weslowski.

The point here is that while yes, there are still model railroaders, you are getting fewer of the 'I turned it out of a Solid block of Brasser' sort of Modeler. But htere are many mbetter ways to get more out of the hobby nowadays - but which layout will put you more in awe, the finely detailed layout [to the level of detail that is present on George Sellio's layout, minus the decay] that all came out of Walther's catalog or the finely detailed layout that is near completely foriegn to the Walther's catalog? I see the common kits and now the builtups everywhere - sure, I have awe for a few moments, but once I learn I've been had, I lose the wonder - There's not a lot great about a box opener, afterall.

I hear what yo;re saying about the pity parade but then I am reminded of a phrase you even said ealier - if you are in model railraoding you really don;t care what bloomin' happens in the rest of the world. so if you are into model trains, stay in it, stay having fun, and stop stressing how the outside world is or is not taking up the hobby. Yes, there are fewer people to pick up the leftovers when you pass on, hence the "there has been NO better time to be a Young model railroader" but then that might lead to more people taking it back up.

Diversification means the modelers are simply moving up...

 

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That's my layout!

 

The world moves on, new people will take up the call and new great railroads, some of smaller stature will take up the call and eventually, Tony Koester will stop prattling on.

Seriously, a couple months ago there was a thread with a link to a long historical/melodramatic look at the hobby press. You lose a lot of respect for even the giants when something like that comes around.

Koester for instance along with McClellan pioneered a way of modeling that simply didn't exist prior to them. The fine Craftsman model builders as well made a major impact. And something new will become "hip" within the modeling world eventually. Such is the way of things.

 

The hip new thing is Modules and flat land Freemo layouts that all look like they were cookie-cuttered out of a Woodland Scenics/MR Tip books and pasted onto a 2x4 foot piece of plywood...

Sure, it's nice for taking pictures of models outdoors, but it's not anything like the old days...

 

I hasten to point out to those who consider the Baby Boomers part in the hobby as simply an anomally which will pass and the hobby continue on unphased, that the Boomers essentially ARE the hobby, at least from a commercial standpoint. Reduce the current number of hobbyists by 70% or more and see what happens to the manufacturers - their numbers would dwindle overnight.

The dimensions of the post-Boomer population interested in our hobby are simply too small to support the sort of broad spectrum, high-end, products that we have become so accustomed to in recent years. While such a number of hobbyists (for example back in the 40's, when hobbyists numbers grew to about 50,000) was sufficient to support a hobby based on card-sided rolling stock kits and simple diecast kit locomotives, offered by individuals, many of whom did their "manufacturing" and selling out of a their basements, returning to that level would be unacceptable to nearly all today.

The major portion of model railroad manufacturing today is increasingly being directed toward producing good selling short runs. Success is measured on immediately selling out say a run of 2,500 units and moving on to the next item in line. Currently, the locomotive market largely survives doing Big Boys, USRA locos, some of the huge modern diesels and new rollingstock that sells in the $25-$35 range. But this is in a market with perhaps a 200,000 customer base. Ruduce that number by 70% and you will see almost no one left in the major manufacturing segment outside of Walthers and maybe Atlas. The alternative is for loco and rollingstock suppliers to go to runs similar to brass in size, on a similar pricing basis and items available mainly by pre-order. Think that isn't possible? Look what's going on in certain corners of the hobby already.

Will the craftsman cottage support industries continue in the future? Perhaps some but lacking the availability of affordable motive power and rollingstock, it's unlikely to be much in the way of a very popular hobby.

NYW&B

 

This is true of literally every facet of modern American life from cars to Homes to magazine subscriptions. Are entire world is gonna change....at least the job market will get better.

Many of the best niche products are still sold out of basements today. Sure, volume breeds lower cost and consistent quality. So do improved manufacturing. I think we'll see more stuff coming from china and some major shifts in product lines. I don't think that will be absolutely a bad thing

I'm not a huge fan of short runs on units and high pricetags, but I think you're wrong to predict doom and gloom. I think the biggest hit will come in the proto-2000/genesis type products. BUT, I think Blue box type basic servicable units will return to being the mainstay with better quality due to improved manufacture. I suspect that the hobby will return to what it was in the 80s where you had kitbashers/detailers working with the basic units and collectors getting the limited run stuff. It will just be plastic instead of Brass.
That's a loss to some extent, but heck, we're already seeing sales issues.

I think a lot more of the small hobby shops will disappear. It's true. Model Railroading will fall into the "long tail" mode of operation. Where a centralized wherehouse can maintain stock and supply via the internet people across the globe rather then a local retailer having to guess what his locals specifically want. Really it already has. At the same time, All hobbys are going to fall off as I said above. Baby boomers affect everything. So I think there's going to be consolidation. I think for retail to remain we're going to have to see a shift in the type of store we shop at (think HobbyTownUSA+Michaels).

All of this will be a struggle, but it won't kill the hobby.

 

Despite promotion of such a concept by the guys at Kalmbach.

They also tried the "$500 layout" idea in MR a few years back--it wasn't much, but it could be done.

 

I recall that layout.

I think it's doable. Part of the goal is of course to have something to continually work on.

 

Was that ENTIRE layout set up in LESS THEN TEN MINUTES?

Once the Video game is set up, there is NO more WORK at ALL to enjoy the product. It's a Done Deal! When the game gets boring, there are another 100 games at the store - imagine getting bored of Atlas Layout No. 2 so you just turn the page to Atlas Layout No. 3 and Poof it's right there in front of you ready to go! MSTrain similator is the closest you can get.

I do not see any way in the future that model kits will take back over the mainstay of the hobby. The Bluebox has sailed past the wharf, it's a ready to run reality now. Not just ready to run, but rather, Quality Ready to Roll. The last round of upgrades to things such as the bachmann freight cars should be a clear indication of where thigns went - the couplers are now body mounted, and if it's silver series there are metal wheels in the trucks. Those people who are already deeply invested in the old way, but the new way it to get the car near finished already and then weather it to the point of oblivion. This is what sells best on Ebay nowadays, afterall - the finished, weathered and detailed stock.

Proto and Genesis might be the next to take a dive, but the replacement will either be a completely stagnent Market or cheaper RTR models. If the Chinese start their own model railraod company, they could very well buy up all of our firms here and turn out the products at rates even lower then what they are now - imagine Proto 2000 Steam at Spectrum Blowout prices.

Heck, I just picked up a Spectrum 4-4-0 with DCC today, brand new, for $75...AFTER shipping...

 

Well, if the prices on RTR fall, then you may be right. I didn't mean to suggest a return to shake the box kits so much as a return to a more generic large run style.

Also, I don't understand why you keep harping on the setup time.

Yes, it takes longer, but guess what. That's part of the fricken point is creating it. That's part of the appeal.


Having said that, I think it's only a matter of time before you can buy premade modular units with the track already down. Heck, there are already specialty companies that are selling small premade layout starters.

I can tell you that if the price were decent, I'd gladly buy premade basic modules. Cause I don't like and thus don't excel at track laying and my benchwork is only passable.


man, the more I think of it, that's an industry to start. Sell them in standard form with minimal options. Hmm, I may have to ponder that. That would be perfect for me.
You're unlikely to get a master layout out of it, but it would sure lower the time cost of entry. Fewer "why is my engine derailing" questions. Yeah, I like it.

 

This would be the sign of an easily bored mind.

I don't know about you, but I actually enjoy the process of designing a layout, building some benchwork, figuring out the wiring, laying some track, working on the scenery, running some trains, and so on. If one's goal is to ONLY run trains, then yes, this would be too boring, but that's why we have things like Railroad Tycoon or MSTrain simulator.

What do you do when bored with a layout? Do you chuck it in the bin? I would tend toward changing the layout, even ripping up whole sections to do over, rather than throw it all away.

I get instant gratification every time I walk into a work session at my club, even if I am sweeping the floor for an open house. It's all part of the hobby. The lack of personal interaction or time for contemplation that I see in video games doesn't appeal to me for more than maybe 10 or 12 hours per year.

This is the danger of making sweeping generalizations based on generational stereotypes. I have been learning all sorts of stuff in this hobby (model railroading and railfanning) from people age 4 up through 93 and from hobbyist/enthusiast backgrounds, rails, older folks with stories, and many others. To either hope for the end of a generation's influence or lament their demise prematurely is to discount in one fell swoop a lot of people.

I prefer the glass half-full approach here. Everyone interesting you meet will be like a tiny thimble full of water added to that glass. Those who have left the hobby or passed away to the great roundhouse in the sky don't take the water out of your glass when they leave. How can you lose?

To paraphrase Utah Phillips, the past didn't go anywhere. I could go outside and find a rock older than you or me or any railroad and bring it inside and drop it on your foot. The past is all around us.

The premises built into some of the earlier messages in this thread, unfortunately, seems to have set up this generational generalization theme to the whole thing. I think that's a bad approach. I would never dream of telling my 93 year old ex-rail grandfather that he didn't have anything to add anymore than I would dream of telling my five year old twin daughters that their observations and experiences of trains are not valid and that Thomas the Tank Engine is ruining the hobby/America/freedom/whatever.

We have to build each other up, not start taking cheap shots at one another. Everyone in this hobby has something to learn and everyone in this hobby has something to teach.

Adam

 

Nicely written, Adam. Thanks.

 

No, and that WASN'T THE POINT.

This will never be a hobby for those who want instant gratification. That's not what it is about.

 

I didn't mean to take the generational difference and drive it into the ground and turn it into an us versus them idea (although it certainly is a common enough way people look at things), but I can see that I've probably not been as tactful as I could be. And for that I apologize. (my at best luke warm opinion of Mr. Koester's current editorial work didn't help anything)
I think there is value in the contributions of people of all ages. That doesn't alter the statistics that the Baby Boomers affect in terms of any hobby and THAT's the point I want to make. Everything is going to be affected by this generational shift. Not just model railroading.

 

I deal in the Information Business - things such as Education, for instance.

There is a growing trend tright now that says that videos need to be 40-90 second soundbites and anything longer is simply too long to hold the current attention spans.

This hobby is NOT about Instant gratificaiton and it never will be - I know that and so does everybody else here. The world we live in, however, IS an instant gratification society.

Video Games are built for Instant gratification - they were never geared towards the older generations. I would not expect those who did not grow up on the computer to fully understand the pull this phenomona has. As a Tweener myself, I have been in both worlds - the old way of patience and long term development - and then the - instant do it all in two hours way - and the physical models are diminished in this second way.

Yoho, I have similar thoughts about Koester from time to time...Koesters go on the coffee table, right?

 

I deal in information as well. And I'd say that the real trend we're seeing is that the people that are compiling trends don't know what they're talking about.
Ask any fan of the new Battlestar Galactica (and there are millions in the target age group) How they feel about a series that requires you to have watched from basically the beginning to understand what's going on. About plotlines that span weeks or months. This is one of the most popular shows on television and it puts a thumb in the eye of every instant gratification study out there.

No, the trend isn't instant Gratification. The trend is interactive entertainment. People don't want to passively watch media anymore. They want to interact. Only the best of movies and TV can survive. The internet and gaming are doing so well, not because they offer instant gratification, but because they offer interactivity.
Heck, In most video games, you have to put in serious effort to finish the game, unlock characters, do the side missions. MMOG even moreso are developed with a long term time consuming hobbylike approach to game play. Instant Gratification as an excuse is SO 1990s.

Which is in fact a problem most media creators, the movie studios, the networks are dealing with and often failing at. They don't get it, because they won't or can't switch media models.

So, then the question is what does this mean for the hobby?

What it means is that young people of today are more than willing to be involved with something that won't spring up instantaneously, but they expect their tools to be well developed and they expect internet support.

As an Aside, I would like to point out the best selling ( I mean seriously best selling)book:The Dangerous Book For Boys
There is a very very very strong movement to recapture some of the more simple craftmanship type entertainments and hobbies that the GenXers and Millenials have missed out on. Model Railroading would do well to latch onto this movement. It fits right in.

 

LOL!!! Couldn't have said it better myself!

 

So I just looked over the Free-mo spec which I had never heard of before and so some pictures of the SLO group. I don't get it, it looks like a cool idea and the layout pictures look pretty awesome.
That Idea would only work if you had a reasonably sized group contributing and good space to set up in. Still, looks like fun. I'd join if there were a group here.